BoE Officials Divided on Inflation Outlook as Business Sentiment Sinks

01-10-2025


UK business confidence plunged to its lowest level on record in September, driven primarily by escalating employment costs and ongoing energy price pressures. According to a survey of business leaders conducted by the Institute of Directors, cost expectations reached unprecedented heights, with labor expenses representing the most significant concern. Anna Leach, the IoD's chief economist, noted that "business confidence has plumbed new depths in September" following a brief improvement at summer's end, highlighting deteriorating conditions across multiple sectors.

The bleak business sentiment emerges against a backdrop of divided views among Bank of England policymakers regarding the inflation trajectory. Two Bank officials, Clare Lombardelli and Catherine Mann, have expressed concerns that UK inflation may not decline as rapidly as anticipated next year, with recent food price spikes potentially persisting into 2026. Both policymakers voted against the central bank's most recent interest rate cut in August, with Mann stating she believes "an inflation persistence scenario is playing out" despite maintaining that further rate reductions remain possible.

In contrast, Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden has adopted a more optimistic stance, asserting that the recent increase in UK inflation will prove temporary and unlikely to generate significant second-round effects. Speaking at Cardiff University, Breeden stated she had "not seen any evidence yet to suggest that the underlying disinflationary process from past shocks is veering off-track," characterizing the situation as "so far so good." Her comments came as headline inflation remained at 3.8% in August, unchanged from the previous month.

The policy divergence within the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee reflects the complex balancing act facing UK monetary authorities. While some members worry about entrenched inflation, Breeden has cautioned that maintaining restrictive policy for "too long" carries economic risks, potentially undermining output and employment while pulling inflation below target. This tension between inflation control and growth preservation comes as businesses grapple with record-low confidence and the chancellor faces calls to deliver a growth-focused budget in November that prioritizes business interests.

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Monarch and Actress Unite for Biodiversity in Wakehurst Seed Bank Discussion

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King Charles has joined forces with Oscar-winning actress Cate Blanchett in a previously unpublicized podcast recording focused on global conservation efforts. The 22-minute episode, titled "Unearthed: The Need For Seeds," was recorded in the private gardens of Windsor Castle in July and features the monarch alongside Blanchett and Kew seed scientist Dr. Elinor Breman. This marks only the second podcast recording in the King's public life, demonstrating his continued commitment to environmental causes that have defined much of his royal work.

The conversation centered on the Millennium Seed Bank at Wakehurst, West Sussex, which King Charles originally opened in 2000 and has maintained an active interest in since. The facility represents one of the world's most ambitious conservation projects, having collected, cleaned, dried and stored nearly 2.5 billion seeds from more than 40,000 plant species in walk-in freezers maintained at minus 20 degrees Celsius. Both the King and Blanchett, who became Wakehurst's first ambassador last year, emphasized the critical importance of this work in preserving global biodiversity.

During the discussion, Blanchett expressed concern about the rapid loss of natural habitats, noting that "97 percent of wildflower meadows have been decimated" in recent decades. She highlighted the disconnect between perceived natural beauty and actual ecological fragility, stating that "there is an urgency to the work that the seed bank does." The King echoed this sentiment, reflecting on his long-standing awareness of environmental degradation, particularly the damage to flower-rich meadows since the postwar period.

The podcast also touched on broader conservation challenges, including the need for increased funding and public awareness. Blanchett pointed to the frustration of seeing "so many extraordinary initiatives right there ready to be scaled up" but lacking financial support and direction. King Charles acknowledged both the progress made and the need to accelerate conservation efforts, stating that while the seed bank's work is "wonderful," the process must speed up to address escalating environmental threats facing plant species worldwide.