Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces mounting fiscal pressure as Britain's economic watchdog prepares to downgrade its productivity forecasts, potentially forcing difficult tax and spending decisions in the upcoming November budget. The Office for Budget Responsibility's anticipated revision reflects a correction to previous optimistic projections made under the Conservative government, rather than any policies implemented by the current Labour administration. This technical adjustment nonetheless threatens to shrink the fiscal headroom available to the chancellor as she navigates her commitment to reduce debt by the end of the current parliament.

The productivity downgrade comes at a particularly challenging moment for the UK economy, which has struggled with stagnant productivity growth since the 2008 financial crisis. Historical data shows productivity grew at a robust 2% annually between 1994 and 2007, driven by technological advances and business-friendly policies, but has since slowed to a mere 0.1% per year according to OBR calculations. This prolonged stagnation has depressed wages, constrained business investment, and weakened tax revenues, creating a persistent drag on economic growth and living standards.

Each 0.1 percentage point reduction in projected productivity growth translates to approximately £10 billion less fiscal headroom within the chancellor's debt-reduction framework. With speculation suggesting the OBR may cut its forecasts by 0.2 percentage points, Reeves could face a £20 billion shortfall that would require either tax increases or spending cuts to maintain her fiscal rules. The timing coincides with Labour's conference in Liverpool, where the chancellor is expected to launch a major communications effort to explain why any necessary tax adjustments should not be attributed to her government's policies.

Compounding the fiscal challenge, tensions are emerging between the Treasury and the independent budget office over the frequency of economic assessments. The chancellor is reportedly considering eliminating the OBR's spring forecast to align with her preference for a single annual fiscal event, a move that has drawn criticism from economic experts who warn it could unsettle bond markets. While the International Monetary Fund has suggested streamlining the twice-yearly assessment process, critics argue that reducing OBR oversight might actually increase fiscal constraints by undermining market confidence in the government's economic management.

London's Metropolitan Police has reversed its longstanding position on grooming gangs in the capital, acknowledging for the first time that it has multiple active investigations into group-based child sexual exploitation. The shift came after an investigation by MyLondon and The Daily Express challenged official statements from both police leadership and Mayor Sadiq Khan, who had consistently maintained there were "no reports" or "no indication" of Rochdale or Rotherham-style rape gangs operating in London.

The investigation uncovered evidence from four separate His Majesty's Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire & Rescue Services reports spanning 2016 to 2025 that documented at least six potential victims of grooming gang abuse. These case studies, which the Mayor of London personally responded to according to public statements, described children as young as 13 being exploited by groups of predatory men. The reports detailed how girls were plied with drugs and alcohol, raped in hotels by multiple perpetrators, and subjected to life-threatening situations.

Metropolitan Police Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley revealed to Assembly Members at City Hall that the force now acknowledges a "steady flow" of live multi-offender child sexual exploitation investigations and a "very significant" number of historic cases requiring reinvestigation. The commissioner estimated these reviews would cost "millions of pounds a year, for several years" to properly investigate, contradicting previous assertions that the force had "not seen" such cases in London.

Political figures including Reform UK MP Lee Anderson and Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp have criticized the mayor's handling of the situation, with Anderson stating there is "real, credible evidence that grooming gangs exist in London" and Philp alleging that Khan is "facilitating a cover-up." A spokesman for the mayor maintained that Khan has "always been clear that the safety of Londoners is his top priority" and remains "committed to doing all he can to protect children in London."